April 1, 2014
By Anthony Tripicchio
Division
Winners
American League
East: Tampa Bay
Tampa
Bay has become a model organization. Imagine if it actually had fan support and
a reasonably modern ballpark. Tropicana Field, despite renovations completed
for this season, remains among the worst eyesores in the league.
With
David Price returning despite his inevitable defection due to the limited
finances of the revenue-challenged Rays, Tampa Bay has an ace to anchor its
plethora of pitching.
Top
to bottom, only Detroit, St. Louis and the L.A. Dodgers rival the Rays’
pitching depth. This is still the case even with Jeremy Hellickson on the shelf
until late May. According to the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have allowed 3,911
runs in the last six seasons, the fewest by an American League team over such a
span since 1975-1980 when Baltimore and New York allowed less.
While
Price is a goner prior to 2016, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Jake
Odorizzi are under team control for the foreseeable future.
The
lineup isn’t a juggernaut, though stalwart Evan Longoria and neophyte outfielder
Wil Myers lay a solid foundation. Switch-hitting Ben Zobrist is valuable
because of his versatility and dependability (he’s played 150 games in five
straight years). Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce are entering their primes and
have room for growth. James Loney and Yunel Escobar are capable of duplicating
their steady 2013 numbers.
Though
the Rays reside in the ruthless AL East, they are the class of the division.
|
David Price is an integral piece to the Rays' puzzle. |
Central:
Detroit
Justin
Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez are a formidable trio. Mix in Miguel
Cabrera, the world’s best hitter, and the Tigers are here to stay. They may
rename the Motor City for Cabrera, in fact, after the slugger just signed a
massive eight-year extension for $248 million that runs through 2023.
The
blockbuster offseason trade of Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler raised eyebrows,
but it did create an opening for Cabrera to slide across the diamond to a less
demanding first base and cleared future salary to enable extension talks with
both Cabrera and Scherzer.
General
manager Dave Dombrowski also ameliorated his bullpen over the winter with the
acquisition of veteran closer Joe Nathan. Former Yankee Joba Chamberlain will
setup.
The
Tigers are not devoid of holes, most notably at shortstop. Jose Iglesias may
miss the season entirely, which has sparked rumors of free agent Stephen Drew
donning the “Olde English D” in short order. In the meantime, the ancient Alex
Gonzalez is manning the position. Highly-regarded prospect Nick Castellanos
takes over for Cabrera at third and is unproven. Torii Hunter and Victor
Martinez aren’t getting any younger.
Division
foes Cleveland and Kansas City are getting better. Still, Detroit is the leader
here.
West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2013
was a season of despair for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Maybe it was
reparation for the pretentious name of the team.
Albert
Pujols and Josh Hamilton were exorbitantly priced offseason prizes for the
Angels a year ago, now they look like albatrosses to many. Pujols was
especially disappointing last year in his truncated, injury-plagued season.
Looking to rebound, Pujols lost seven pounds and insists he’s destined to have
a comeback year.
I’m
banking on it. Pujols won’t quite recapture his past dominance, but he will
play a lot more than 99 games as he has in 12 of 13 seasons.
Hamilton
is much better than the career-worst .306 OBP he posted in 2013. After Texas
went to such great lengths to shelter the troubled star during his tenure
there, Hamilton might have experienced some culture shock in the bright lights
of his new locale. Coupled with the assimilation issue, Hamilton also dropped
20 pounds last year and possibly some power as well. Now that he’s gained the weight
back and is more comfortable in his surroundings, he should acclimate.
Mike
Trout is the preeminent all-around player in baseball and, at 22, it’s
frightening to ponder the heights of his ceiling. If Pujols and Hamilton
recover to perform more in line with their career averages, you won’t find many
weaknesses in the Angels’ attack.
Howie
Kendrick and David Freese are consistent. Kole Calhoun, an unheralded rookie outfielder
who was a plus after his promotion from Triple-A in 2013, will have the privilege
of leading off in a potentially explosive lineup. The ageless one, Raul Ibanez,
is the primary designated hitter and still has pop.
The
rotation of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago and
Tyler Skaggs should keep them in games if the offense hits as expected. In the
bullpen, Ernesto Frieri is a prototypical closer with overpowering stuff.
|
After a rough start to his Angels' career, Josh Hamilton will rebound. |
Wild Cards: 1. Texas
Injuries
have ravaged Texas early. Ian Kinsler’s replacement, a ballyhooed 21-year-old
switch-hitting middle infielder named Jurickson Profar, is sidelined for months
with a muscle tear in his shoulder. Pitching is far from immune as Yu Darvish,
Derek Holland and Matt Harrison, Texas’ top three starters, are all currently
on the DL. Granted, Darvish should be back shortly.
As
long as manager Ron Washington can keep his team afloat until reinforcements
rescue the rotation, this is a playoff caliber squad. The lineup can be
thunderous with Shin-Soo Choo, an on-base machine, setting the table for the
meat of the order in Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Alex Rios. Leonys Martin
and Michael Choice, given the opportunity, are breakout candidates.
Joakim
Soria has wrestled the closing duties from Neftali Feliz, who experienced
diminished velocity in spring training and has been relegated to the minors
until it is rediscovered. Soria, while a serviceable closer in the past, hasn’t
been in the role in three years.
Obstacles
exist for the Rangers. On dark days, just remember, they play Houston 19 times
this year.
2. New York Yankees
Hal
Steinbrenner restocked the Yankees’ vault with some shimmering jewels for Derek
Jeter’s swan song. Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran replenish a
lineup that lost Robinson Cano to the Emerald City.
In
the wake of the spending spree, there are still an abundance of question marks.
The entire infield is shaky, the rotation leaves much to be desired and the
bullpen is minus Mr. Sandman.
Let’s
start at first base and go around the horn.
Mark
Teixeira was on a precipitous decline even before he suffered a wrist injury in
the World Baseball Classic and eventually underwent season-ending surgery to
repair it.
Now, Teixeira says he’s been unconsciously restricting himself from
letting it fly on his swing because he doesn’t trust that his wrist has healed.
If Teixeira can amass Justin Smoak type numbers (in the neighborhood of .240,
25 HRs, 85 RBI), the Yankees should consider it a victory. Of course, that’s
not what the Yankees are paying for with three years, $67.5 million remaining on
the eight-year contract he signed prior to the 2009 season. Somehow, I don’t
see anyone taking up a collection for the Bombers anytime soon.
The
middle infield duo of Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts is decrepit by positional
standards. Roberts hasn’t been a reliable regular since 2009 and is a long-shot
to finish the season as the second baseman. Don’t be surprised if the opening
day third baseman, Kelly Johnson, is moved there permanently by September.
Johnson,
himself, is inexperienced at third. While the Yankee Stadium short porch in
right field will be inviting for the lefty-hitting Johnson, he may be a defensive
liability at the hot corner.
The
Capitan won’t be vintage Jeter and Yankee fans will have to accept that. The
devastating ankle injury, along with Father Time, sapped Jeter of his speed.
His range, defensively, has also been compromised (many contend it was never
expansive to begin with). As great a baserunner as Jeter was, possessing
unmatched instincts, he won’t glide around the bases anymore. His head will
tell him to do what his body can’t.
At
the plate, Jeter rarely lifts the ball these days. If he escapes this season
healthy and Joe Girardi isn’t tempted to remove him from the second spot in the
order, his Hall-of-Fame career ends with dignity.
Andy
Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are history and, unless the Yankees get adequate
production from their replacements, New York won’t make more of it in 2014.
The
big ticket item, Masahiro Tanaka, must be an immediate impact arm despite
general manager Brian Cashman attempting to temper expectations. Former ace CC
Sabathia had a dreadful 2013 and can no longer overwhelm hitters with hard
stuff. For him to be successful, he’ll need to figure out how to be effective
without all the familiar tools he’s applied throughout his career a la Mike
Mussina circa 2008.
The
unenviable task of following Rivera goes to David Robertson. Although Robertson
has excelled in the setup role, his makeup to be a closer is in dispute. Shawn
Kelley will work the eighth inning, Matt Thornton is the lefty specialist and David
Phelps, Adam Warren and Vidal Nuno will vie for the middle innings and long relief roles. Failed starter Dellin Betances will be a factor and may
usurp the setup role from Kelley before year’s end.
With
the infusion of new blood, the Yankees should score enough to overcome their
shortcomings. There is, however, a chance of a pitching implosion, which is
ominous.
|
CC Sabathia must reinvent himself to be effective. |
National
League
East: Washington
Washington
was a popular pick for prognosticators in 2013 and there’s no reason for that to
change. The easiest justification for that is its superb rotation.
Led
by Stephen Strasburg, Washington trots out a staff that includes Gio Gonzalez,
Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister (when healthy, that is. Incidently, the Tigers
received a curiously miniscule return for Fister and his presence on the DL already
is reason for trepidation) and Taylor Jordan.
Bryce
Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond supply plenty of firepower
to a gifted lineup. You wish Harper wouldn’t be so unbridled in his approach to
the game because he’s a constant injury concern as it is. The 21-year-old prodigy
won’t realize his full capabilities until he’s able to play more under control.
At
second base, Anthony Rendon garners his first opportunity to start the year as
an everyday major-leaguer. Transitioning from his natural third base spot to
accommodate Zimmerman, Rendon rose through the minor league ranks quickly and
could elevate himself into Washington’s nucleus.
The
bullpen looks strong again, highlighted by closer Rafael Soriano and the
established Tyler Clippard.
Only
long-term injuries to Harper and Strasburg can befell the Nationals. Given
their histories, at least one of them is a good bet to go down.
Central: St. Louis
Like
Tampa Bay, the Cardinals’ farm system develops a wealth of talent that
constantly keeps the organization above the curve. The entire Cardinal rotation
is homegrown (the only one of its kind, albeit the Reds will join them once Mat
Latos returns) as is the core of the team, with the notable exceptions of Matt
Holliday and Jhonny Peralta.
The
main difference between St. Louis and Tampa Bay is payroll. St. Louis’ 2014
payroll is $34 million more than that of Tampa Bay’s, which shows you the
advantages of a devoted fanbase and a new ballpark even when you’re outside of
a major market.
When
the Cardinals want to keep a player, they normally have the resources to do it
if it’s within reason as they proved with Holliday. Albert Pujols and his
astronomical Angels’ contract clearly don’t meet that criterion.
St.
Louis reached into its coffers to ink Peralta, an offensive shortstop, to a
four-year, $53 million contract. The Cardinals were not deterred by Peralta’s
50-game suspension for PED use in 2013 and it’s hard to quibble with them based
on the culture they’ve fostered in their clubhouse. Mike Matheny seamlessly took
the reins from the legendary Tony La Russa and he knows how to manage their
embarrassment of riches.
The
lineup figures to be plentiful with Holliday, Peralta, Yadier Molina, Allen
Craig, and Matt Carpenter in tow. Two more farm products, Matt Adams and Kolten
Wong, are projected to add significant punch to the equation. A blue-chip
outfielder, Oscar Taveras, awaits the call in Triple-A.
All
of Major League Baseball envies the Cards’ pitching staff, both in the starting
rotation and bullpen. Superstar Adam Wainwright is the elder statesman and spearheads
the group with Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly rounding
out the five. Wacha and Miller, particularly, are expected to be frontline
starters and if that holds true, St. Louis will be hosting more World Series
games in the near future.
Flamethrower
Trevor Rosenthal climbed the minor-league ladder as a starter, but finds
himself finishing games for the Cardinals based on their specific needs. Ditto
for Carlos Martinez in middle relief.
As
deep as the organization is, the Cardinals are impervious to most injuries.
Only Wainwright and Molina are indispensable.
|
Yadier Molina is an invaluable battery mate for Cardinals' pitchers. |
West: Los Angeles Dodgers
The
Dodgers, not shy about flexing their financial might, feel like the Yankees of
George Steinbrenner’s heyday. With Don Mattingly at the helm, the comparison is
more apropos.
Sporting
a loaded roster, one concern for Los Angeles is Matt Kemp. In limited duty last
year, Kemp wasn’t the force the Dodgers have grown accustomed to. Actually, the
last two years have been riddled with shoulder, hamstring and ankle ailments
for the center fielder. With six years and $128 million still owed to Kemp, the
Dodgers are heavily invested.
Kemp’s
issues with staying on the field have been a foreign concept to Clayton Kershaw…up
until now. The top pitcher in the big leagues, Kershaw has been a horse in
logging 200 innings in four straight seasons. Today, Kershaw finds himself in the
unfamiliar territory of the trainer’s room. The Dodgers will take every
precaution necessary to ensure the southpaw doesn’t reaggravate his “upper-back
inflammation” (it sounds like semantics from the Dodgers as this is really
related to Kershaw’s left shoulder) by returning too soon.
The
Dodger stars hardly stop there.
Yasiel
Puig is not boring. The imported Cuban outfielder is as reckless on the field
as he is off of it. Playing with that type of abandon is certain to take a toll
on his body as Bryce Harper is all too aware. It's stands to reason that Harper recently called Puig his favorite player to watch in the league. He resembles an NFL linebacker at
times in right field at Chavez Ravine. Regardless, he’s a supreme talent.
That
shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, isn’t bad either. A myriad of issues prevented
Ramirez from completing his MVP pace throughout a full season. When he was in
the lineup, however, he was lethal. While Adrian Gonzalez might not be the
monster he used to be, the first baseman is a threat that opposing pitchers can’t
ignore.
Los
Angeles has the pitching to match its decorated position players. The
aforementioned Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren and Josh Beckett
constitute a rotation that costs just over $76 million this season alone. That’s
more than Miami and Houston’s entire payrolls and is barely shy of eclipsing
Pittsburgh ($78,111,667) and Tampa Bay ($77,062,891) also.
Good
luck mounting rallies in the ninth inning against Kenley Jansen, the man closest to emulating Mariano Rivera’s trademark cutter. The vulnerability in the Dodgers’
bullpen lies in former closers Brian Wilson and Chris Perez, now tasked with
middle relief, who aim to resurrect their careers. Brandon League has been a colossal
disappointment and was a misguided signing from the beginning.
|
Hanley Ramirez can win the NL MVP...if he stays healthy. |
Wild Cards: 1. San Francisco
The
bottom line with San Francisco is it retains the frontline pitching you look
for in contenders.
Madison
Bumgarner, a 24-year-old lefty, is a rare find. He earns more national recognition
with each passing day and it’s well deserved. Three straight years he’s
surpassed the 200 inning plateau and 2013 was a career-year (13-9, 2.78 ERA,
1.03 WHIP). His ERA may creep above 3.00 and the WHIP could see a modest uptick,
but he’s a gem.
Matt
Cain stumbled last year and some point to the abundance of innings he’s accumulated.
It was the first time in six years he slipped under 200 innings and his ERA
soared beyond 4.00.
When
you examine his numbers under the microscope, Cain’s peripherals were rather
normal for him. His walks weren’t exceedingly high and he wasn’t victimized by
an outrageous amount of homeruns even though the rate did see a bump. More
perplexing, his BABIP was right around his career average. Cain’s velocity did
not dip.
His
lackluster spring training will feed the skepticism. I, for one, expect the
29-year-old Cain to comeback as the one of old.
Tim
Hudson had a gruesome ankle injury last year that prematurely terminated his season
for Atlanta. Despite his advanced age, 38, Hudson’s competitiveness alone will
benefit San Francisco where the ballpark should treat him well.
Although
Buster Posey wasn’t quite as outstanding as his MVP season, he’s perennially among
the best catchers in the league. Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval are known
quantities and Brandon Belt is progressing nicely.
2. Milwaukee
This
pick may surprise you. The reality is there’s a lot more in Milwaukee than
breweries and Summerfest (if you've never been, do yourself a favor and get out to see the biggest music festival in the world).
First
of all, Ryan Braun returns from his infamous PED suspension. Braun, a
polarizing figure, will hit like he always has and he’ll have help. No, that
help won’t come in the way of juice.
Instead,
it’s Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy.
Gomez
finally put it all together. An enticing combination of power and speed, Gomez
had 24 homers and 40 stolen bases in 2013. Sure, he needs to cut down on those
146 strikeouts so he can utilize his legs even more, but at 28 there’s reason
to believe he’s still improving as he enters his prime. The whiffs were
actually a mild surprise because he’s never struck out at that rapid rate
before: 120 is a more satisfactory expectation.
A
similar breakthrough occurred with the shortstop, Segura (.294, 12 HRs, 49 RBI,
44 SBs). 24-year-old middle infielders with those credentials are in short
supply. His lack of selectivity at the plate is the main deficiency in his
approach.
One
of the more underappreciated players of his generation, Ramirez is a rock at
third base. Khris Davis turned heads in Braun’s absence and now assumes left
field with Braun shifting to right. Throw in a serviceable catcher in Lucroy
and the ingredients of a worthwhile platoon at first base (Lyle Overbay and
Mark Reynolds), and your offense can get the job done.
On
the mound, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza and Kyle Loshe represent a respectable
front three. Marco Estrada is a sleeper to hold his own with that club. As he’s
proven in sporadic opportunities in recent years, Francisco Rodriguez can still
close games.
|
Ryan Braun can let his bat do the talking this year and put the PED controversy to rest. |
World Series: Tampa Bay over St.
Louis in 6
Joe
Maddon presses all the right buttons in David Price’s last year as a Ray. Tampa
Bay’s window for a championship hinges on Price and the team knows it. St.
Louis will be back.
Over/Under
Regular Season Wins
Boston Under 87.5:
Consider me a skeptic. Grady Sizemore is a great story, but are we really to
believe he’s going to play 130 games this year and be remotely close to the
player he once was? Falling short of 100 games in each of the last four years,
Sizemore hasn’t played in the big leagues at all in the last two.
The
left side of the infield is also a question mark. Although Xander Bogaerts is
an exciting prospect, he is only 21. It’s not automatic that his skill set will
immediately yield production. Will Middlebrooks and his poor plate discipline
don’t engender confidence at third base.
The
rotation contains spots of predictable regression. Expecting John Lackey to
repeat his 2013 ERA and WHIP (3.52 and 1.16, respectively) would be foolish
after his first three seasons in Boston were nowhere near that level. Jake
Peavy’s American League resume is less than stellar and he’s only thrown 175
innings once in the last six years. Clay Buchholz isn’t the picture of
durability, himself, as he’s exceeded the 175 inning threshold just once, while
never reaching 200.
Cleveland Over 80.5:
This number felt low based on the Indians’ success last year. Justin Masterson,
Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar at the top of the rotation will battle. An
improved bullpen features John Axford closing behind the heir apparent Cody
Allen, Vinnie Pestano and lefty Mark Rzepczynski. Axford was tipping his
pitches last year. That’s been rectified and with his stuff as strong as ever,
he’ll be better than Chris Perez ever was.
Oakland Under 87.5:
“I’m not seeing it here, Lloyd.”
Oakland’s
accomplishments last year are truly impressive. Forgive me as I pass on the
encore. There isn’t much upper-eschelon talent on this roster and save for trading
Seth Smith for Luke Gregerson and replacing Bartolo Colon (who was incredible
last season) with Scott Kazmir in what equates to a lateral move, there wasn’t
a multitude of offseason activity for general manager Billy Beane.
Washington Over 90:
Being a resident of the NL East is advantageous. The Mets, Phillies, Marlins
are bad and I see the Braves taking a step back this year. This is the worst
division in baseball.
Atlanta Under 87.5:
Mainly, this pick is due to the horror show that was the Braves’ spring.
Projected opening day starter Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both needed Tommy
John surgery for a second time. Mike Minor joined them on the DL to start the
year and the Braves can ill-afford to lose him for any length of time. I
applaud Atlanta for acting quickly to plug in Ervin Santana, but it’s not
enough to hit 88 wins.
Milwaukee Over 79.5:
Since you’ve seen I have the Brewers in the playoffs, this is a layup.